IPP’s regional managing director Andy Maddock
With 2025 experiencing one of the driest springs and summers on record it’s understandable that many water companies have already raised the spectre of hosepipe bans across the UK.
Indeed, our ever-changing climate provides more evidence that summer is already in its death throes. The early russeting of deciduous leaves and a quickening August ripening for hedgerow blackberries are already evidencing the early seasonal change to autumn.
While there are obvious benefits for longer, warmer summers including extended growing seasons for crops such as sugar beet and leafy vegetables, the changes are not universally compatible with our current farm to fork food supply chain strategies.
It is therefore not surprising that experts are predicting testing times ahead – not just in the UK, but across the world, where the global food supply chain is likely to face significant challenges due to extreme weather events, crop failures and ever-increasing food prices.
These issues are expected to be more pronounced in regions already vulnerable to climate-related hazards, but the interconnectedness of the global food system means that disruptions in one area can have ripple effects worldwide.
As a business involved in the logistics of fresh food products and their sustainable delivery, we understand the importance of supply chain agility to overcome the challenges of climate change fragility.
More extreme weather events – intense heatwaves, droughts and floods – are already negatively impacting crop yields. Ultimately these shortages will result in increased production costs, leading to higher food prices.
This in turn affects affordability and potentially exacerbates food insecurity, particularly for vulnerable populations. In addition, severe climate change can also create conditions that favour the growth of mycotoxins that produce fungi, potentially leading to increased contamination of staple crops like corn, rice and nuts.
All of the above impact supply chain resilience. Extreme weather events can damage transportation networks, storage facilities and processing plants, further disrupting the flow of food from farm to fork.
Even in regions with relatively low food insecurity, such as the EU, climate change is projected to exacerbate the problem.
And, while Europe is generally less vulnerable than other regions, it is experiencing the fastest warming rate, with significant rainfall deficits already affecting crop yields.
Unrelated to climate, war in Ukraine has also had a negative impact on grain supplies to the rest of Europe, as the region was always the ‘bread basket’ of the continent of Europe.
Further afield, regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa are particularly vulnerable to both civil war and climate change impacts, with potential for widespread crop failures, food shortages and increased displacement of populations.
Events in regions like the Middle East can also disrupt shipping routes and increase transportation costs.
Climate change is also competing with government and business pressures impacting their supply chains. Closer to home, for example, supermarkets often rely on ‘loss leaders’ such as selling fresh produce at a low price to attract customers. This can put additional pressure on growers and impact their profitability.
Fresh food shortages as a result of climate change can also result in consumers switching to frozen or processed cheaper alternatives, another challenge for supply chain resilience.
Solutions
Both upstream and downstream businesses are attempting to put robust measures in place to mitigate these challenges.
At source, farmers can diversify their crops and planting locations to reduce their vulnerability to climate change impacts, as well as adopting sustainable agricultural practices like organic farming and agroecology, which can enhance soil health and biodiversity, improving food production and nutritional quality.
At a regulatory level, Government policies that support growers, address the perennial labour shortages and promote sustainable farming practices can help build more resilient food systems – as can programmes which educate consumers about the challenges facing the fruit supply chain to encourage them to buy local.
In terms of supply chain agility, optimising transportation routes and investing in cold storage and other logistics infrastructure can also help minimise spoilage and reduce costs.
This kind of adaptability is crucial in tackling the challenges of long supply chains and the shorter shelf life of fresh produce. More businesses are looking to become part of the circular economy to ensure their supply chains are incrementally lowering their environmental impact in terms of reduced carbon emissions through the repair, reuse and repatriation of sustainable transport assets.
We have always described this process as ECOnomics, where technology and the use of data and increasingly AI-driven supply chain modelling allows businesses to complete a virtual and virtuous circle. This helps reduce costs and the carbon footprint of their business to gain competitive advantage, as well as boost wafer-thin margins and their reputational standing in an increasingly ESG-accredited ecosystem.
Only nine per cent of the global economy is currently engaged in the circular economy, but expect that percentage to increase as the seasons and climate continue to change.