A new study from Smithers and UPM Specialty Materials points to changing dynamics in the food packaging landscape, with fibre-based materials taking the leading share by 2045, recycling rates climbing toward 37%, and a regulatory landscape where sustainability becomes a strict government mandate.
Fibre-based food packaging is on course to become the leading sustainable material by 2045, driven by breakthrough barrier coating technologies, tightening global regulation, and a decisive consumer shift away from single-use plastics. These are among the key findings of the new global study published today by UPM Specialty Materials and Smithers.
More than 230 global packaging professionals from across the value chain contributed to a collective assessment of the key trends projected to drive sustainability in food packaging by 2045.
According to the survey, respondents see strong interest in fibre-based packaging, with its share of the global food packaging market is expected to rise from 37% today to 42% by 2045. 71% of respondents expect fibre-based packaging to be perceived as the most sustainable solution, citing advances in barrier coatings set to unlock food applications that were previously the exclusive domain of plastics.
“We’re encouraged to see strong momentum behind fibre-based packaging, driven by regulation, consumer demand, and ongoing innovation in barrier technologies. Our role is to support customers in this transition with high-performance, sustainable solutions that do not compromise on functionality.” says Janne Varvemaa, Director, Products and Technology, UPM Specialty Materials.
The study outlines a future in which sustainability becomes a strict government mandate, not a brand differentiator: 71% of those surveyed believe this is likely, and 88% expect it to fundamentally reshape packaging choices. Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) schemes and eco-modulation fees are projected to become a primary driver of material selection, rewarding recyclable, high-performance solutions and penalizing hard-to-recycle alternatives.
Recycling rates are forecast to climb from 31% in 2030 to 37% by 2045. Yet challenges remain, with respondents expecting that landfilling and incineration will persist. Outcomes vary significantly by region, with Europe leading in recycling while the US and Asia-Pacific face distinct infrastructure and regulatory hurdles. Overall, the findings underscore the urgency of accelerating innovation and development globally.
“The evidence is clear that the industry will continue to focus on improving recycling rates and regulations, particularly as EPR and eco-modulation are directly influencing material choices. Ongoing innovation in barrier technologies is also opening up new applications for fibre-based packaging to compete with plastic alternatives,” says Ciaran Little, VP, Global Consulting Information Division, Smithers.
Download the full Sustainable Food Packaging to 2045 report to explore the complete findings, expert commentary and data here.
*The trends presented above and in the report reflect survey-based insights and do not necessarily reflect Smithers or UPM's views.