Declining production volumes in Europe, increasing regulatory requirements (including recycled material quotas, ecodesign, digital product passports), and growing international competition are increasing the pressure on the plastics industry to transform.
AI is increasingly seen as a strategic lever for dealing with these challenges. AI technologies are already being used in image processing, process control, and sorting technologies. By 2030, their contribution could grow significantly along the entire value chain—from material development and design to production and recycling.
Key findings of the position paper
The publication is based on an contextual analysis and a survey of 46 experts from Fraunhofer CCPE and project partners from the research projects “KIOptiPack” and “K3ICycling” from the BMFTR-funded AI Hub for Plastic Packaging.
The most important findings:
- AI is used technologically, especially in clearly defined applications.
- The bottleneck is the lack of interoperable data structures, not primarily the technology itself.
- Economic efficiency, liability, and regulation determine the scaling from pilot project to continuous industrial operation.
- AI complements classic approaches such as design for circularity and the expansion of (recycling) infrastructure – it does not replace them.
- AI is no panacea, but a powerful tool within a broader transformation process.
“AI can close material, process, and data gaps – but it can only unleash its potential on a shared, reliable database. At the same time, we must not misunderstand AI as the sole solution: a functioning circular plastics economy also requires consistent design for recycling, robust infrastructures, and clear regulation,” emphasizes lead author Dr. Anna Kerps.
Three priorities until 2030
In order to systematically leverage the identified potential and transition AI from pilot status to industrial scale, Fraunhofer CCPE has defined three strategic priorities:
- Establishment of common data platforms and standards along the entire value chain.
- Developing and scaling explainable, hybrid AI models in real-world laboratories and end-to-end demonstrators.
- Establishing governance and business models that enable data sharing, trust, and investment security.
Special attention should be given to small and medium-sized enterprises, for which integration and compliance requirements represent a major barrier.
Joint mission for industry, politics, and research
The Fraunhofer Cluster of Excellence Circular Plastics Economy CCPE sees itself as a neutral, industry-oriented partner in the development of a data-driven circular plastics economy.
The central message to industry and politics is: Investing now in data rooms, standards, and AI expertise will strengthen both competitiveness and recyclability. What is needed are innovation-friendly regulatory frameworks, practical demonstrators, and cross-company cooperation. Only when technological excellence, economic incentives, and clear governance structures work together can intelligent plastic cycles become the industrial standard by 2030.
The position paper will be presented for the first time on March 12, 2026, as part of a master class entitled “AI in the plastic value chain by 2030” at the Circular Valley Convention in Düsseldorf by its authors Dr.-Ing. Anna Kerps, Dr. Markus Hiebel (both Fraunhofer Institute for Environmental, Safety, and Energy Technology UMSICHT), and Jan-Philip Kopka (Fraunhofer Institute for Material Flow and Logistics IML).
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